1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	329716	Eleven: Football Manager Board Game	Current	41	5.55	5.50	3.00
			Estimated	200	8.03	5.75	2.94

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Eleven — the number of players you have on the pitch at any given time, with those players making all the difference between being the best team and the worst. But every team knows that to be the best in the league it takes a lot more than players; it also takes an incredible manager. Eleven: Football Manager Board Game is an economic strategy game set in a world of sport. Your task is to manage and grow your own football club over the course of a season. During the game, you hire staff members, including trainers, physical therapists, PR specialists, and directors. You acquire sponsors, expand the stadium infrastructure, and take care of your club's position in social media. Among the many tasks on the list are transferring new players and choosing the right tactics for each of the upcoming matches. Eleven can be played multiplayer or solo. The solo mode includes six different scenarios that challenge players with different starting situations and goals for the season. In the beginning, the task is simple: You have to climb the steps of the football leagues and achieve the appropriate experience. You may have to manage the club in a crisis, and at other times you will have to rejuvenate a football team of players that are not so young anymore. You may also have to fight against time to try to complete the stadium before the deadline! —description from publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/329716

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Eleven: Football Manager Board Game? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Eleven: Football Manager Board Game. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Eleven: Football Manager Board Game. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	329716	Eleven: Football Manager Board Game	1.00	5.50	5.55	2.94	41
1	2016	197377	Waterloo 1815: Napoleon's Last Battle	0.90	5.56	8.40	4.14	45
2	1987	1558	Rogue Trooper	0.88	5.58	6.07	2.22	357
3	2012	98975	Boudicca: The Warrior Queen	0.81	5.58	7.13	2.50	92
4	1982	3110	Dragon Rage	0.80	5.63	6.89	2.68	183
5	1977	1629	Air War: Modern Tactical Air Combat	0.80	5.46	5.36	4.66	317
6	1972	8803	The American Revolution 1775-1783	0.78	5.54	6.30	2.36	79
7	1978	6687	Lords Of The Middle Sea	0.78	5.51	6.00	2.40	33
8	1981	4296	Battles & Leaders: A Game of Tactical Level Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	0.78	5.53	6.71	3.25	51
9	2019	281198	The Elder Scrolls: Call to Arms	0.77	5.56	7.16	3.75	91
10	1980	3674	Fast Attack Boats: A Game of the Arab-Israeli Naval War 1973	0.77	5.52	6.20	2.46	66
11	2014	161726	Sword & Spear: Wargames Rules for Ancient and Medieval Battles	0.76	5.54	7.67	2.67	42
12	2016	98918	Bios: Genesis	0.76	6.21	7.13	4.42	1,440
13	2013	148213	Primer: The Gamer's Source for Battles from the Age of Reason	0.75	5.60	9.13	4.00	61
14	2010	65242	Shiloh: Bloody April, 1862	0.75	5.51	6.31	2.88	32
15	1993	3894	Brilliant Lances	0.74	5.50	5.69	3.00	54
16	2020	297702	Fury at Midway	0.74	5.54	7.22	2.50	50
17	2001	1821	Grant Takes Command	0.74	5.82	7.97	3.70	269
18	1981	4300	The Barbarians: Games of the Fall of Rome and the Mongol Invasion of Europe	0.73	5.52	6.06	2.17	86
19	1979	4288	Panzer: A Tactical Game of Armored Combat on the Eastern Front, 1941-1945	0.73	5.62	7.25	3.75	134
20	2014	148557	Par le feu, le fer et la Foi	0.73	5.55	7.55	3.25	48
21	2018	224590	Code Triage	0.73	5.53	7.08	2.00	37
22	2017	220975	History Maker Golf	0.73	5.65	8.67	2.33	109
23	1987	6924	Shot and Shell: Naval Combat in the Civil War	0.73	5.53	7.37	3.60	33
24	2016	123689	Fornovo 1495	0.73	5.52	7.09	3.00	32
25	2008	31542	Field of Glory: Ancient and Medieval Wargaming Rules	0.72	5.62	6.76	3.66	197

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Eleven: Football Manager Board Game while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	329716	Eleven: Football Manager Board Game	5.50	1.00	5.50	5.55	2.94	41
1	2016	197377	Waterloo 1815: Napoleon's Last Battle	4.99	0.90	5.56	8.40	4.14	45
2	1987	1558	Rogue Trooper	4.89	0.88	5.58	6.07	2.22	357
3	2016	98918	Bios: Genesis	4.71	0.76	6.21	7.13	4.42	1,440
4	2015	171662	Neanderthal	4.58	0.72	6.35	7.32	3.74	1,589
5	2012	98975	Boudicca: The Warrior Queen	4.54	0.81	5.58	7.13	2.50	92
6	1982	3110	Dragon Rage	4.52	0.80	5.63	6.89	2.68	183
7	1977	1629	Air War: Modern Tactical Air Combat	4.37	0.80	5.46	5.36	4.66	317
8	1972	8803	The American Revolution 1775-1783	4.30	0.78	5.54	6.30	2.36	79
9	1981	4296	Battles & Leaders: A Game of Tactical Level Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	4.29	0.78	5.53	6.71	3.25	51
10	2001	1821	Grant Takes Command	4.28	0.74	5.82	7.97	3.70	269
11	2019	281198	The Elder Scrolls: Call to Arms	4.28	0.77	5.56	7.16	3.75	91
12	2020	316858	CloudAge	4.28	0.67	6.35	7.40	2.81	1,456
13	1978	6687	Lords Of The Middle Sea	4.27	0.78	5.51	6.00	2.40	33
14	2019	209003	Commands & Colors: Medieval	4.27	0.71	5.99	8.28	2.53	418
15	1980	3674	Fast Attack Boats: A Game of the Arab-Israeli Naval War 1973	4.23	0.77	5.52	6.20	2.46	66
16	2013	148213	Primer: The Gamer's Source for Battles from the Age of Reason	4.23	0.75	5.60	9.13	4.00	61
17	2014	161726	Sword & Spear: Wargames Rules for Ancient and Medieval Battles	4.20	0.76	5.54	7.67	2.67	42
18	2020	297702	Fury at Midway	4.11	0.74	5.54	7.22	2.50	50
19	2017	220975	History Maker Golf	4.11	0.73	5.65	8.67	2.33	109
20	2010	65242	Shiloh: Bloody April, 1862	4.11	0.75	5.51	6.31	2.88	32
21	1979	4288	Panzer: A Tactical Game of Armored Combat on the Eastern Front, 1941-1945	4.10	0.73	5.62	7.25	3.75	134
22	1978	1577	Source of the Nile	4.10	0.71	5.76	6.52	2.95	601
23	1993	3894	Brilliant Lances	4.08	0.74	5.50	5.69	3.00	54
24	2019	240271	Core Space	4.07	0.66	6.20	8.78	2.96	820
25	2008	31542	Field of Glory: Ancient and Medieval Wargaming Rules	4.06	0.72	5.62	6.76	3.66	197

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	329716	Eleven: Football Manager Board Game	Portal Games	Thomas Jansen	Mateusz Kopacz	Economic	Sports: Football / Soccer	Dice Rolling
					Hanna Kuik	Sports		Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game

Individual Game Analysis